Possible scenario
Closure Becomes Baseline
40% Chance
The United States keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed while avoiding a decisive military expansion. Oil traders and insurers treat the blockade as a durable near-term constraint, with cargoes redirected through Saudi, Emirati, and Iraqi routes where possible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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