Possible scenario
Regional Fighting Escalates
30% Chance
Congo concludes the ambush was coordinated by Rwanda-backed M23 elements and responds with intensified military operations in North and South Kivu. Rwanda denies involvement, but the already-broken ceasefire deteriorates further and cross-border risk rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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