Possible scenario
Diplomatic Reset
20% Chance
The scale of the contractor deaths pushes the United States, African Union, Qatar, and the UN to revive enforcement of the June 2025 Washington accord. Kigali faces renewed pressure because the ceasefire had already collapsed and U.S. sanctions were previously halted.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Tickers
- +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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