Possible scenario
Niche Contract Stalls
25% Chance
A plausible downside case is that tungsten's physical market remains too opaque and concentrated for a liquid futures benchmark to emerge quickly. Defense users may prefer bilateral contracts and stockpiles, limiting near-term trading revenue for CME.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Tickers
- AII-1.1%
- CME-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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