Possible scenario
Surplus Reasserts Itself
30% Chance
A renewed focus on supply growth, storage builds, and record production-linked flows could push prices back below the psychological $3 threshold. This would suggest the latest settlement was a short-covering bounce rather than a durable bullish turn.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Utilities +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- AR-2.2%
- EQT-2.0%
- EXE-1.9%
- -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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