Possible scenario
Stabilization Through Diplomacy
28% Chance
A partial de-escalation lowers the regional risk premium and gives the IMF room to soften its 2026 contraction estimate. Pakistan benefits from continued IMF disbursements and Gulf support, while tourism and trade conditions improve from depressed levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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