Prolonged Shallow Contraction

The most likely path is a weak but contained regional downturn as the Israel-Iran conflict, Gaza war, and Red Sea disruption continue without a decisive escalation. Gulf oil exporters remain under pressure from softer demand forecasts, while Pakistan and import-dependent economies rely on IMF programs to avoid a sharper balance-of-payments break.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.