Possible scenario
Oil Shock Deepens Slump
18% Chance
A more severe but less likely path involves renewed attacks or military signaling that threatens Gulf energy infrastructure or tanker routes. The regional contraction worsens as higher oil prices support producers only partially while importers, airlines, and consumers face an immediate squeeze.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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