Possible scenario
Compliance Friction Emerges
25% Chance
The privacy framing draws scrutiny from compliance vendors, centralized venues, and some institutional users. The most likely outcome is not an immediate sanctions replay, but a practical split between DeFi-native users and regulated counterparties.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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