Possible scenario
Sticky Inflation Grind
45% Chance
The most likely path is a prolonged stagflationary squeeze: inflation remains too high while household demand and business confidence weaken. The RBA keeps a tightening bias because rents, services prices and wages prevent a quick return to target.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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