Possible scenario
Soft Landing Returns
25% Chance
Inflation momentum eases without a severe rise in unemployment, allowing the RBA to stop at 4.60%. This would validate the latest hike as a final insurance move rather than the start of a more damaging tightening cycle.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Finance +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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