Possible scenario
Hard Landing Emerges
18% Chance
Higher rates finally overwhelm households, small businesses and housing turnover, turning stagflation risk into a sharper growth shock. The RBA is forced to weigh financial stability and unemployment against still-elevated inflation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
- Finance -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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