Possible scenario
Hamilton flips Kansas
30% Chance
Hamilton maintains the polling lead created by abortion-rights backlash and the negative coverage of Marshall's record. Grant's intervention arrives too late to repair Marshall's standing with suburban women, independents, and moderate Republicans who remember the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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