Possible scenario
Security-First Clampdown
24% Chance
Clayton frames super intelligence as an intelligence and national-security asset, accelerating scrutiny of model weights, frontier chips, cloud access, and foreign partnerships. This outcome would be mixed: positive for domestic secure-AI contractors but negative for firms exposed to China sales or cross-border research ties.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- PLTR+1.9%
- NVDA-1.6%
- -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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