Possible scenario
Watered-Down Deal
28% Chance
A bipartisan group tries to salvage a narrower ethics package that leadership can accept. The likely compromise would emphasize disclosure speed, penalties, and blind trusts rather than a full prohibition on lawmakers and spouses trading individual stocks.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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