Possible scenario
Successful Airport Strike
15% Chance
A projectile or drone bypasses defenses and damages aviation infrastructure in the Gulf or Iraq. Even if casualties are limited, investors price a higher probability of wider regional escalation and higher insurance costs for airlines.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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