Possible scenario
Proxy Harassment Campaign
25% Chance
Iran-linked militias or aligned actors test regional defenses with drones, rocket threats, cyber probes, or GPS interference. The incidents disrupt aviation schedules but stop short of a mass-casualty strike or prolonged airport shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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