Possible scenario
Contained Aviation Standoff
45% Chance
Iran and aligned groups keep threats rhetorical while Gulf states increase airport security and air-defense readiness. Airlines continue selective rerouting around Iranian and Iraqi airspace, but no major regional airport is struck.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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