Possible scenario
Israel-Hezbollah Escalation
20% Chance
A deadly strike, miscalculation, or Hezbollah attempt to contest the Israeli line triggers a broader round of fighting. The conflict remains most likely to be geographically concentrated in Lebanon and northern Israel, but the risk premium for Middle East energy and global risk assets rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.