Possible scenario
Iraq Corridor Stabilizes
35% Chance
Iraq's decision to hire more tankers and assume freight risk succeeds in keeping Basra crude moving through Hormuz. Iran avoids directly challenging the Iraqi-controlled program, either to limit regional blowback or because convoy procedures make opportunistic attacks harder.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.