Possible scenario
Iran Escalates Attacks
30% Chance
Iran treats the Iraqi tanker-hiring program as an attempt to break the blockade and raises pressure on vessels linked to Basra exports. This is the most dangerous near-term path because previous attacks show capability and willingness to target commercial shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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