Possible scenario
External Protection Expands
20% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, Gulf Arab states, and insurers move to prevent the Iraqi tanker program from becoming another flashpoint. This path reduces shipping uncertainty, but it also creates a risk of a direct naval incident with Iranian forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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