Possible scenario
Ethics Complaint Advances
30% Chance
The language on Crockett's campaign website leads to a formal complaint with the House Ethics Committee, the Office of Congressional Ethics, or the FEC. The central question becomes whether campaign infrastructure was used to advertise paid influence or lobbying access.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.