Possible scenario
Bank Adoption Accelerates
42% Chance
The most likely path is continued institutionalization of Bitcoin banking after the SEC, FDIC, and bank custody barriers eased in 2025. Large banks expand custody, collateral, and treasury-services offerings, while Strategy benefits from being treated as a benchmark proxy for corporate Bitcoin adoption.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.4%
Tickers
- MSTR+4.2%
- +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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