Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
18% Chance
The strike on a high-profile Aramco site increases the incentive for outside mediation before the confrontation damages Saudi economic targets further. Oman, the UN, and possibly Washington push a narrower security arrangement that separates missile attacks from broader Yemen settlement demands.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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