Contained Saudi-Houthi Exchange

The most likely path is a continuation of the current tit-for-tat cycle without a sustained hit on Saudi oil production. Riyadh responds militarily and tightens air defenses, while the Houthis keep using intermittent missile and drone launches to raise Saudi security costs.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.