Possible scenario
Aramco Disruption Risk
25% Chance
A follow-on attack or precautionary shutdown raises concerns that Saudi oil infrastructure could face more than symbolic damage. Even a short disruption at processing, storage, or export facilities would create a sharper energy-market response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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