Possible scenario
Enforcement Escalates
25% Chance
US authorities could treat the Senate findings as a basis for broader enforcement against intermediaries that processed Iran-linked stablecoin flows. This would pressure offshore exchanges and stablecoin issuers, though the shock would likely remain crypto-sector specific rather than a broad financial-market event.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance -0.6%
Tickers
- CRCL+1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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