Possible scenario
October Pause Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that John Williams’s pushback and the softer job-openings data keep the Federal Reserve from tightening in October. Officials still preserve optionality for December, but the near-term bar for another hike rises unless inflation or payrolls reaccelerate.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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