Possible scenario
Labor Weakness Deepens
20% Chance
The job-openings miss may be an early sign that labor demand is cooling faster than policymakers expected. If additional employment data weaken, markets shift from debating one more hike to debating growth risk and the timing of eventual easing.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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