Possible scenario
Hike Case Rebuilds
25% Chance
A stronger inflation print, firmer payroll detail, or hawkish official commentary could reverse the Williams-driven repricing. This would revive the September narrative that the Fed is not finished and pressure duration-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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