Possible scenario
Brokered De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, China, and European governments press Tehran and Washington into a short operational pause to prevent a direct war. This does not resolve the blockade dispute, but it reduces the immediate probability of further missile launches and lets some traffic resume.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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