Possible scenario
Compliance Friction Builds
18% Chance
The pilot opens formally, but implementation proves more difficult than the headline suggests. Custody, transfer-agent liability, market-data fees, best execution, and investor disclosure rules create delays and reduce the scale of early trading.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Tickers
- COIN-2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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