Possible scenario
Protests Broaden
25% Chance
Opposition parties convert the custody dispute into a wider campaign against alleged voter suppression. The issue spreads beyond the Cockroach movement, drawing civil-society groups and state-level parties into coordinated protests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Business Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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