Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Expands
42% Chance
Democrats convert the expanded battlefield into a genuine wave, winning not only Biden-leaning and marginal Trump seats but also several districts Trump carried by double digits. Low Trump approval, a favorable generic ballot, and GOP defensive spending problems allow the DCCC to stretch Republican incumbents across too many fronts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.