Possible scenario
Race Stays Unresolved
20% Chance
The 46-44 poll is accurate in showing a tight race, but neither candidate opens a durable lead. Late absentee counts, provisional ballots, and county-level certification processes become central to the result.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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