Possible scenario
El-Sayed Lead Holds
36% Chance
Abdul El-Sayed remains narrowly ahead as Democratic turnout in Wayne County, Ann Arbor, and inner-ring Detroit suburbs offsets Republican strength in western and northern Michigan. The Trump attack line energizes some GOP voters but also reinforces Democratic messaging about extremism and personal attacks.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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