Possible scenario
Iran Response Contained
25% Chance
Iran responds politically and through controlled military signaling, but avoids actions that would close the Strait of Hormuz or trigger a direct U.S. escalation. Markets price some residual Gulf risk while assuming neither side wants a wider conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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