Possible scenario
Information Trust Crisis
20% Chance
The damage extends beyond Wikipedia because search engines, AI answer systems, schools, and newsrooms depend on Wikipedia as a reference layer. The near-term risk is less about direct financial losses and more about confidence in internet knowledge infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.3%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.