Possible scenario
New Revenues Preserve Spending
20% Chance
The Commission avoids the deepest cuts by proposing additional EU-level revenues, tighter conditionality and limited reprioritization. This would preserve more investment in defense, technology and energy resilience while giving Germany and allies a fiscal-control narrative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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