Possible scenario
Budget Standoff Deepens
25% Chance
The frugal coalition refuses the Commission's opening plan, while southern and eastern members resist deep reductions in cohesion and agriculture. The result is a longer negotiation that delays clarity on EU-wide investment priorities and raises modest political-risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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