Possible scenario
Protests Broaden Nationally
30% Chance
The emergency meeting fails to produce enough concessions, and the education protests merge with anger over the 2027 budget savings plan. Unions use the school mobilization to call broader public-sector action, though disruption remains below a systemic crisis level.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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