Possible scenario
Perez Holds Seat
35% Chance
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez survives despite trailing in the October poll, repeating her pattern of outperforming in a Trump-won district. Her local brand, labor support, and crossover appeal among moderate Republicans keep enough Clark County voters in her column.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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