Possible scenario
Major Direct Strike
20% Chance
Iran launches a larger direct attack that causes US or Israeli casualties, forcing a more visible US-Israeli military response. This would mark a clear escalation from threats to kinetic conflict and produce a sharper, though still not systemic, market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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