Possible scenario
Contained Retaliatory Exchange
42% Chance
Iran follows through with a limited missile or drone strike against Israeli or US-linked military targets, but avoids mass casualties or attacks on major energy infrastructure. Washington and Jerusalem respond with defensive deployments and limited precision strikes, keeping the confrontation below full-scale war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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