Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
25% Chance
Iran uses the threat to signal deterrence while intermediaries including Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland press for a pause. The US and Israel maintain high alert but avoid fresh strikes, allowing risk assets to recover modestly from escalation fears.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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