Possible scenario
Managed Normalization
45% Chance
Rodriguez consolidates interim authority with U.S. backing, avoids an immediate rupture with the military, and moves toward a negotiated transition. Washington uses sanctions relief and diplomatic recognition to lock in cooperation on elections, migration, and oil-sector stabilization.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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