Possible scenario
Loyalist Backlash
18% Chance
Elements of the old regime resist the U.S.-backed transition, creating a security crisis around military units, colectivos, or oil infrastructure. Because Maduro has already been captured, even contained unrest would raise questions about the durability of the new government.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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