Possible scenario
Fragile Power Sharing
25% Chance
Rodriguez survives the immediate post-Maduro period but must bargain with military commanders, PDVSA insiders, and parts of the old Chavista apparatus. The U.S. relationship improves, but reforms and sanctions relief proceed more slowly than markets hope.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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