Possible scenario
Ukrainian Breakthrough Expands
18% Chance
Ukraine converts the initial 86-square-kilometer gain into a broader operational opportunity. Russian units near the Donets line face pressure on logistics routes, raising the chance of a local withdrawal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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